Monday, June 1, 2009

Can the Nationals win 50 games, let alone 60?

After a week of taking over the Nationals Farm Authority, I'm in a blogging state of mind. I did 20 posts from 5/25 to this am 6/1. 9 across the affiliates posts, 5 on Strasburg, SDSU and the NCAA tourney, 2 on mock drafts and draft projections (these took the most work frankly b/c of all the links), and the rest being news & notes and player movement. Fun times; spent way too much time on the postings though. Luckily we're in a total lull of work at the moment.

After 50 games, the nationals are 13-36 (with one suspended game to be completed later). We are now 6.5 games worse than the NEXT WORST team. WE have a .265 winning percentage, which projects to a record of 43-119, and which would equal one of the worst modern winning percentages seen as done by Detroit a few years back. Now, Baseball Prospectus doesn't think we're nearly as bad as we are, giving us a best case adjusted standing of 21-28 based on "third order" adjusted wins by runs scored and strength of schedule. To go 60-102 they're going to have to finish the season 47-66 at this point (a .415 clip).

Here's a look at their pitching after 50 games.

starter starts era whip record nats record in starts
Lannan 11 4.21 1.53 2-5 2-9
Martis 10 5.62 1.42 5-1 6-4
JZimmerman 8 6.07 1.48 2-2 3-5
Detwiler 3 4.8 1.33 0-1 0-3
Stammen 2 5.56 1.24 0-1 1-1

Olsen 8 7.24 1.9 1-4 1-6-1
Cabrera 8 5.95 2.03 0-5 0-8





Detwiler has been an unlucky loser twice, but got drilled over the weekend. Stammen's first start was promising, but he's almost certainly in the same boat as Garrett Mock; a decent arm better suited for the bullpen. Lannan remains half-way effective but is no better than a 4th starter on any quality team. Martis and JZimmermann are too young to know any better.

The question is; where does this team go from here? How hard do they try to address the bullpen and starting pitching at this point? Do they trade every marketable player for prospects and just give up on this season?

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